Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.114113 1.174249 1.236499 1.305877 1.381197 1.460666 1.551076
2026-01-04 1.014320 1.098695 1.189691 1.295624 1.416191 1.549906 1.710485
2026-01-11 0.962962 1.063231 1.174559 1.308325 1.466026 1.647739 1.875487
2026-01-18 0.918196 1.028997 1.154855 1.309945 1.498101 1.721907 2.012830
2026-01-25 0.893888 1.015230 1.155933 1.333384 1.554513 1.825629 2.190798
2026-02-01 0.848382 0.973035 1.119793 1.308121 1.547618 1.848192 2.264512
2026-02-08 0.803125 0.928517 1.077998 1.272592 1.524301 1.846519 2.303696
2026-02-15 0.773999 0.902067 1.056674 1.260908 1.529757 1.881100 2.392485
2026-02-22 0.753303 0.884875 1.045692 1.261234 1.549992 1.935347 2.511186
2026-03-01 0.725879 0.858015 1.021125 1.242313 1.542895 1.951011 2.574407
2026-03-08 0.694251 0.824649 0.986868 1.208884 1.514037 1.934128 2.587368
2026-03-15 0.676362 0.808135 0.973603 1.202615 1.521780 1.968731 2.679402
2026-03-22 0.665319 0.800686 0.972634 1.213940 1.556130 2.045798 2.847029
2026-03-29 0.646632 0.782693 0.957125 1.204679 1.560745 2.079455 2.948880
2026-04-05 0.637179 0.776377 0.956740 1.216076 1.595349 2.159710 3.133519
2026-04-12 0.624689 0.765519 0.949689 1.217530 1.615022 2.217779 3.285560
2026-04-19 0.620019 0.764863 0.956333 1.238546 1.664722 2.325830 3.535292
2026-04-26 0.600409 0.743393 0.933536 1.215893 1.646475 2.323090 3.584104
2026-05-03 0.578639 0.718421 0.905145 1.183997 1.612413 2.292316 3.577798
2026-05-10 0.565146 0.704414 0.891639 1.173498 1.611166 2.315714 3.675925
2026-05-17 0.555891 0.695955 0.885620 1.173790 1.626778 2.368152 3.835138
2026-05-24 0.541504 0.680019 0.868527 1.156777 1.613788 2.370521 3.894440
2026-05-31 0.523573 0.658763 0.843328 1.126688 1.578390 2.331907 3.866573